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Monday, 15 November 2010

X factor analysis 15th November

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So Aiden and Katie reached the bottom two in last night's show, with Aiden receiving the fewest number of votes and was evicted from the competition.  It is interesting to note that the bottom 4 as we predicted yesterday, were the last 4 contestants in the show as they were made safe.  So although Dermot states that the contestants are told that they are safe in no particular order, it would make sense to increase the tension to not have contestants that are obviously safe in the 'drop zone'.

We have had a similar result before - Paije does not trend well in twitter, and there are very few comments made about him.  This is interesting in itself, since he has not yet been voted into the bottom 2, so there is therefore a large demographic voting for him that does not have a presence on twitter.  This highlights the need to ensure that data sources that cover all demographics are identified for any marketing or PR campaign.

The same largely goes for Mary too, although it is noticeable that her support on Twitter has diminished over the past few weeks, suggesting that she may be in trouble in the coming shows unless she is able to either connect better with the audience or produce better singing performances to keep her in the competition.

It is also interesting to examine the pattern of the results over a number of days.  We said yesterday that Mary and Paije were in the bottom two based on Saturday's results only, however if we average over a number of days, then we end up with the following result, that can be seen in the chart below:

Average rank over 10 days

The analysis shows that if we look at the average score over the past 10 days, we see that Aiden has in fact been overall in the worst position.  We see that Mary and Paije have similar levels of support, and that Katie out of the four contestants analysed here has a core following on Twitter that means she consistently does better.

This analysis therefore perhaps puts yesterdays result into perspective. Katie has a core support which will vote for her regardless of her performance.  From previous experience on X Factor we can see that this is necessary, and explains why she continues in the competition, despite there being so much negative press about her.

Aiden on the other hand, has fluctuated dramatically over the past 10 days, with his support not as consistent. For a contestant in this position, he is always one poor performance away from being voted out.

The analysis also indicates that Paije and Mary may also struggle in the coming weeks, although again good performances may buffer them from dropping into the bottom two.

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