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Thursday, 9 December 2010

X factor winner - 3 days to go!

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With only 3 days to go before the winner of X Factor is decided, we thought it would be useful to do some analysis on what people have been saying on twitter. Again, we should note that the twitter demographic as we know does not match the demographic of the voting public. However we can look to see if there are any trends in the data, or anything else of interest.

One of the things we can do is look at who is context with the word 'win'. This should give us an indication of who is being talked about, and who the twitter public either most want to win, or who they think is most likely to win.

The chart below shows how each contestant has trended in the past 4 days in positive context with the word 'win'. Here we can see a continuation of the high score for Cher from the weekend. However this did not prevent Cher from falling into the bottom two, and suggests that there is an online campaign to try to return Cher as the winner of the X Factor. We saw a similar thing with Wagner, where he scored extremely well (in terms of the number of tweets in context with 'win' and other winning words).

Ranking of positive context

We can also see a similar story for negative context. In this case, we can interpret the graph as meaning which contestant people most do not want to win. Here Cher is again the top scorer, indicating that people either love or hate her. We see Matt and Rebecca tending to do quite well, indicating that the majority of people like them, particularly in comparison to One Direction and Cher.

Ranking of negative context

These graphs only tell part of the story however. Let's look at some negative context analysis for Cher, can we understand why people do not like her? Or conversely why they feel so passionately about her?

In many respects each of the contestants in reaching this stage is a winner in their own right. Each of them have different singing styles and so the winner is more likely to be determined by the demographic of the voting public. Our analysis will now look to focus on brand loyalty in terms of these contestants - what makes them interesting, and what makes them different.

Let's first look at the words in negative context with Cher. As before, the ~ character indicates a 'not' in front of the word, since it was found in negative context with Cher.

05/12/2010 ~cher ~singing ~ballads ~songs ~done ~slow ~would ~isn ~week ~cocky
06/12/2010 ~cher ~lloyd ~mary ~win ~final ~know ~last ~get ~will ~say
07/12/2010 ~cher ~dont ~win ~want ~2010 ~think ~going ~are ~cant ~watch
08/12/2010 ~cher ~lloyd ~ever ~youtube ~heard ~nickiminaj ~amazing ~week ~has ~fierce

We can see the development of the words over each day. At first, we see the focus on her not singing ballads. We then see comments on the fact that people do not want Cher to win.

If we look at the positive context, at first this makes not so much sense.

05/12/2010 cher mary matt rebecca direction voting leak russia leaked x-factor
06/12/2010 cher lloyd malvern gone tickets gig factor 2010 fixing accused
07/12/2010 cher 2010 going can back cherlloyd follow chertowin lloyd love
08/12/2010 cher lloyd cole cheryl malvern cherlloyd performs vote4cher video factor

There is a large focus here on Malvern, which a quick Google search shows is where Cher is from, and is in reference to her returning and performing a small concert. This story is dominating this analysis, so we can look at the next 10 words in context with Cher to see if there is anything else of interest.

05/12/2010 results will tonight was had are final bottom get cheryl
06/12/2010 show bosses metro booted noonelikesyoubecause direction cheryl ferguson nicki really
07/12/2010 still support were retweet gona damn straight amazing has hashtagged
08/12/2010 awkward let dancing cringe fans mobbed followers twitter gains perform

This time we can see some negative comments come through. Evidently the 5th December shows the discussion of her in the bottom two. Subsequent days however has 'noonelikesyoubecause' coming through along with words like: awkward, cringe. So we see a mixed picture for Cher, which reflects the earlier analysis showing that people either love her or hate her.

We will continue this analysis in the coming days, and repeat for the other contestants.

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