Sunday, 12 December 2010
X Factor prediction 12th December
So we have finally come to the end of the marathon that is X Factor! Cher left the show last night, despite a concerted twitter effort by her fans to encourage everyone to vote for her.
An interesting feature of the twitter analysis that we have done is that certain contestants that have been in trouble have had twitter campaigns waged to try to get other people to vote for them! This has meant that analysis like ours which looks at how close in context the contestants are to winning words will be bias towards those people, such as Katie, Wagner and now Cher. A subsequent reaction is then created however by those not wanting these contestants to win, and we find that the same contestants are closest in negative context to the same winning words.
This perhaps gives us a way to try to analyse the data that we have. Which contestants do the public feel most positive about, overall, given the positive and negative context analysis? In other words, if we add the positive context scores for the contestants in context with winning words, and subtract the negative context scores, what ordering do we get? To put it another way, who do the public love the most and hate the least?!
We have analysed the results from last night's show and also the two previous Saturday shows (i.e. we've ignored the tweets made during the week, and concentrated on the highest tweeting activity which is during the show itself on the Saturday). The results are quite interesting, and can be seen in the plot below.
The analysis shows that One Direction started as favourites a couple of weeks ago. In fact according to our analysis, One Direction have been the overwhelming favourites for many weeks now. However it has been noticeable that their support on twitter has begun to drop in comparison to the other contestants.
This then changed to Rebecca as a favourite, until after yesterday's performances we see Matt now as favourite. This perhaps indicates that this year it is quite an open contest! All of the contestants are different from each other and therefore the individual performances count for alot as to how the public may end up voting.
Our final prediction of the year then, based on Twitter data, is that Matt will win, with Rebecca second. One Direction will come in third.
As always it is worth remembering that this analysis is based on twitter data only, and this may not reflect the actual public vote which has a different demographic.
Posted by Brand Aura Social Insights at 14:33